July Market Factor Data Dive

Everyone seems to have a prediction of what is happening and where things are headed. I don't have any more predictions right now, other than I believe in Austin, and the economic engine we have going right now with businesses and people continuing to move here.  There are a lot of factors playing into our current market conditions (which I discussed in last month's overview), and believe they will continue to influence the market.

I have also noticed Austin feels crazy quiet right now. The other night I was rushing to see my daughter play basketball in Tarrytown, and I was able to fly down MOPAC at 6pm. There was absolutely no traffic on a road that is generally stop n go at that hour.  That doesn't mean all buyers are out of town, but it feels like more people are on the road early in the Summer.

So the number of sales are lower than last year, but values are holding (for the time being). We are watching the number of pending sales for June in a more real time scenario and it won't be surprising to see that we come in under last years levels again this month.

You know I watch this closely, but this graph from Independence Title puts things in perspective (for me). Doubling inventory levels but still under a few years ago. This is growing on a weekly basis as buyers move cautiously, and I won't be surprised to see it above 2 months next month. I talk absorption rate with sellers all the time...meaning how many homes are going under contract each month relative to the number of properties for sale. If your community has 10 homes for sale and only 1 sale last month, you've got a 1 and 10 chance of finding a buyer.

So no predictions, just data we are watching. July / August are historically slower months in Austin (see first graph) but maybe Summer vacations were front loaded this year? Maybe folks will continue to sit on the sidelines to see what happens with rates a little bit longer. I come back to one question, would you bet against Austin over the next 2, 5 or 10years?

Good luck out there and stay cool!