If we've worked together, then you have most certainly heard me say "I don't have a crystal ball," when weighing in on market trends and projections. But what I do have is experience and data, and what I know to be true is that it is hard to see the light when we're in the storm.
Did you know that in 1990, the average home price in Austin was $82,000 🤯?! (Also I was a Freshman in HS). This got me thinking and I decided to take a 30 year historic look at our market's ups and downs... Do you know what I found?
We are living in our 4th "unprecedented time" since I started my career in real estate in 2002...
Since then we have seen:
👾 The .com bubble of 2001-3
📈 Market crash of 2007-9
🦠 The COVID-19 global pandemic
📊 Historically rapid increase in mortgage interest rates currently in play...
While I may not have a crystal ball, there is one thing I am willing to bet on: This is not the first and will not be the last "unprecedented time" that Austin, or the nation, will see... The graph in my video from The Real Estate Center at Texas A&M shows Austin has traditionally recovered faster, was impacted less by negative market trends, and many local economists expect to see strong continued growth over the next 30 years just like it has the last. Our economic engine right now is a whole other topic.
Austin has seen pullbacks on values before, but they look relatively minor compared to the swings other parts of the nation experience. I bought my first home in Jan 2001 (at a 7% interest rate) and sold in 2006 for a profit. I bought my second home in 2006 and came out ahead in 2011. My wife and I purchased an investment property in December 2021, and are still glad we did. Every cycle has varying impacts, even within the micro markets of Austin. If we look at the long game (in 5-10yr increments), Austin has weathered each period rather well.